Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) can make a big difference with a little luck

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI) stock jumped 2.38% on Wednesday to $60.75 against a previous-day closing price of $59.34. With 1.04 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.25 million shares. During the session, the Discount Stores company that operates in wider Consumer Defensive sector, reached to the highest price of $61.53 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $59.04. The 52-week range on OLLI shows that it touched its highest point at $72.27 and its lowest point at $37.67 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $62.13. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.82.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of OLLI was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 16.33%, but this was up by 4.94% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -7.63% while six-month performance rose 33.02%. The stock lost -8.50% in the past year, while it has gained 18.68% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for OLLI yields 1.49 with Next year EPS estimates of 2.72. For the next quarter, that number is 0.40. This implies an EPS growth rate of -34.10% for this year and 53.97% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 7.50% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 20.40%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 62.58 million OLLI shares are outstanding with a float of 58.50 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 8.41 million, which was 13.44% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. John W. Swygert Jr. as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Eric van der Valk serves as its Exec. VP & COO.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 111.42% of OLLI’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 71.36% of OLLI, in contrast to 63.02% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 44.77%. As the largest shareholder in OLLI with 14.77% of the stake, Fidelity Management & Research Co holds 9,247,221 shares worth 9,247,221. A second-largest stockholder of OLLI, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 4,815,079 shares, controlling over 7.69% of the firm’s shares. Wasatch Advisors, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in OLLI, holding 4,541,717 shares or 7.26% stake. With a 5.23% stake in OLLI, the Virtus KAR Small Cap Growth Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 3,273,672 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Fidelity Growth Company Fund, which owns about 3.07% of OLLI stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 1,921,745 shares valued at 107.62 million. iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF holds 2.79% of the stake in OLLI, owning 1,746,754 shares worth 97.82 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for OLLI since 15 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 8 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 1 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 6 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With OLLI analysts setting a high price target of $79.00 and a low target of $50.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $62.13. Based on these targets, OLLI could surge 30.04% to reach the target high and fall by -17.7% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 2.27% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. OLLI will report FY 2023 earnings on 03/22/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $1.80 being high and $1.66 being low. For OLLI, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $1.76. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. surprised analysts by -$0.11 when it reported $0.22 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.33. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.10. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.43 and the low estimate is $0.36. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.40.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded OLLI stock several times over the past three months with 1 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 705 shares were bought while 206 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 24 while that of sell transactions has risen to 16 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 36,858 while 7,132 shares were sold.

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