Healthy Upside Potential: ConocoPhillips (COP)

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) stock fell -0.87% on Friday to $111.09 against a previous-day closing price of $112.07. With 5.79 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 7.45 million shares. During the session, the Oil & Gas E&P company that operates in wider Energy sector, reached to the highest price of $114.89 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $111.06. The 52-week range on COP shows that it touched its highest point at $123.12 and its lowest point at $56.95 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $124.66. With its current market cap of 144.46 billion, COP has annualized dividend of $4.44 while the current yield stands at 4.00%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.30.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of COP was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -5.62%, but this was up by 5.56% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 20.30% while six-month performance rose 10.33%. The stock gained 89.78% in the past year, while it has gained 55.56% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for COP yields 12.14 with Next year EPS estimates of 13.69. For the next quarter, that number is 4.01. This implies an EPS growth rate of 342.80% for this year and -10.90% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 19.78% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 32.60%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 1.29 billion COP shares are outstanding with a float of 1.27 billion shares on hand for trading. On Aug 30, 2022, short shares totaled 19.66 million, which was 1.54% higher than short shares on Jul 28, 2022. In addition to Mr. Ryan M. Lance as the firm’s Chairman & CEO, Mr. William L. Bullock Jr. serves as its Exec. VP & CFO.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 81.44% of COP’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 51.02% of COP, in contrast to 30.41% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.42%. As the largest shareholder in COP with 8.45% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 107,581,072 shares worth 107,581,072. A second-largest stockholder of COP, SSgA Funds Management, Inc., holds 63,621,731 shares, controlling over 5.00% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in COP, holding 61,712,696 shares or 4.85% stake. With a 3.01% stake in COP, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 38,294,366 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard 500 Index Fund, which owns about 2.27% of COP stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 28,865,411 shares valued at 3.16 billion. SPDR Series – Energy Select Secto holds 1.30% of the stake in COP, owning 16,510,562 shares worth 1.81 billion.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for COP since 28 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 20 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 4 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 4 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With COP analysts setting a high price target of $153.00 and a low target of $106.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $125.78. Based on these targets, COP could surge 37.73% to reach the target high and fall by -4.58% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 13.22% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. COP will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/02/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $20.70 being high and $12.70 being low. For COP, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $15.24. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. ConocoPhillips surprised analysts by $0.05 when it reported $3.91 EPS against a consensus estimate of $3.86. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.10. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $6.26 and the low estimate is $2.86. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $3.86.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded COP stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 2,597 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 37 while that of sell transactions has risen to 54 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 1,527,696 while 1,695,370 shares were sold.

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