A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) stock fell -7.64% on Friday to $3.99 against a previous-day closing price of $4.32. With 81.78 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 20.87 million shares. During the session, the Entertainment company that operates in wider Communication Services sector, reached to the highest price of $4.3450 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $3.9300. The 52-week range on SIRI shows that it touched its highest point at $7.95 and its lowest point at $3.32 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $4.93. With its current market cap of 16.60 billion, SIRI has annualized dividend of $0.10 while the current yield stands at 2.43%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.04.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of SIRI was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -6.34%, but this was down by -13.64% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 4.18% while six-month performance rose 10.53%. The stock lost -33.61% in the past year, while it has lost -31.68% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for SIRI yields 0.29 with Next year EPS estimates of 0.33. For the next quarter, that number is 0.08. This implies an EPS growth rate of -4.40% for this year and 6.19% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 7.76% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 11.60%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 3.86 billion SIRI shares are outstanding with a float of 608.13 million shares on hand for trading. On Aug 30, 2023, short shares totaled 166.19 million, which was 4.33% higher than short shares on Jul 30, 2023. In addition to Ms. Jennifer C. Witz as the firm’s CEO & Director, Mr. Joseph Inzerillo serves as its Exec. VP and Chief Product & Technology Officer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 12.89% of SIRI’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 83.92% of SIRI, in contrast to 8.00% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 2.98%. As the largest shareholder in SIRI with 1.55% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 59,649,567 shares worth 59,649,567. A second-largest stockholder of SIRI, SSgA Funds Management, Inc., holds 28,762,745 shares, controlling over 0.75% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in SIRI, holding 26,624,231 shares or 0.69% stake. With a 1.70% stake in SIRI, the Invesco QQQ Trust is the largest stakeholder. A total of 65,163,695 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Pacer Fds. Tr. – US Cash Cows 100, which owns about 0.71% of SIRI stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 27,348,919 shares valued at 120.34 million. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF holds 0.48% of the stake in SIRI, owning 18,363,753 shares worth 80.8 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Jun 29, 2023, SIRI reported revenue of $2.25B and operating income of $497.00M. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was $637.00M and diluted EPS was $0.07.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for SIRI since 0 analysts follow the stock currently. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With SIRI analysts setting a high price target of $7.00 and a low target of $3.50, the average target price over the next 12 months is $4.94. Based on these targets, SIRI could surge 75.44% to reach the target high and fall by -12.28% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 23.81% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy.

Dividends & Yield:

In terms of dividends, SIRI has a current ratio of $0.1, which is $0.1 over the trailing 12-months, while a dividend of $0.06 is likely to be paid on average over the next five years. Dividend yield is another indicator that appeals to many investors, and SIRI currently yields $2.43. In the past year, SIRI’s dividend yield has been $2.43, but when looking at the stock over the past five years, its yield has been $1.12. Accordingly, SIRI has a current buyback yield of $2.81. This was $2.81 for the TTM, and it was $5.78 for the past five years.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded SIRI stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 44,518 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 80 while that of sell transactions has risen to 22 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 3,008,466 while 1,521,517 shares were sold.

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