Wall Street analysts’ outlook for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR)

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (NYSE: ARR) stock fell -3.16% on Thursday to $4.59 against a previous-day closing price of $4.74. With 8.68 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 5.41 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Mortgage company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $4.7600 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $4.5000. The 52-week range on ARR shows that it touched its highest point at $7.98 and its lowest point at $4.38 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $5.33. With its current market cap of 912.31 million, ARR has annualized dividend of $0.96 while the current yield stands at 20.92%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.24.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of ARR was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -6.33%, but this was down by -8.02% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -18.33% while six-month performance fell -19.33%. The stock lost -38.64% in the past year, while it has lost -18.47% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for ARR yields -1.71 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.12. For the next quarter, that number is 0.26. This implies an EPS growth rate of -7.80% for this year and 5.85% for next year. EPS is expected to decline by -11.36% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of -20.00%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 184.59 million ARR shares are outstanding with a float of 130.89 million shares on hand for trading. On May 14, 2023, short shares totaled 19.15 million, which was 9.80% higher than short shares on Apr 13, 2023. In addition to Mr. Jeffrey J. Zimmer as the firm’s Co-CEO, Co-Vice Chairman & Pres, Mr. Scott Jeffrey Ulm serves as its Co-CEO, Co-Vice Chairman & Head of Risk Management.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 39.04% of ARR’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 32.61% of ARR, in contrast to 14.65% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.81%. As the largest shareholder in ARR with 14.08% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 27,523,698 shares worth 27,523,698. A second-largest stockholder of ARR, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 20,051,947 shares, controlling over 10.26% of the firm’s shares. SSgA Funds Management, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in ARR, holding 5,607,890 shares or 2.87% stake. With a 6.05% stake in ARR, the iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF is the largest stakeholder. A total of 11,823,406 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which owns about 3.27% of ARR stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 6,397,279 shares valued at 32.63 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund holds 2.57% of the stake in ARR, owning 5,032,532 shares worth 25.67 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for ARR since 0 analysts follow the stock currently. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With ARR analysts setting a high price target of $10.00 and a low target of $5.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $6.50. Based on these targets, ARR could surge 117.86% to reach the target high and rise by 8.93% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 41.61% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded ARR stock several times over the past three months with 2 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 6,284 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 53 while that of sell transactions has risen to 25 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 245,506 while 102,042 shares were sold.

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