Taking on analysts’ expectations and winning: Incyte Corporation (INCY)

Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY) stock fell -2.19% on Thursday to $62.87 against a previous-day closing price of $64.28. With 1.72 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 1.61 million shares. During the session, the Biotechnology company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $63.73 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $62.48. The 52-week range on INCY shows that it touched its highest point at $86.29 and its lowest point at $63.06 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $82.24. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.73.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of INCY was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -1.19%, but this was down by -14.50% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -18.37% while six-month performance fell -19.68%. The stock lost -16.30% in the past year, while it has lost -21.73% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for INCY yields 1.45 with Next year EPS estimates of 4.69. For the next quarter, that number is 0.85. This implies an EPS growth rate of -64.40% for this year and 38.03% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 15.00% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 24.50%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 222.96 million INCY shares are outstanding with a float of 218.93 million shares on hand for trading. On May 14, 2023, short shares totaled 7.01 million, which was 3.14% higher than short shares on Apr 13, 2023. In addition to ONCY as the firm’s Oncolytics Biotech Inc., INCY serves as its Incyte Corporation.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 96.51% of INCY’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 53.47% of INCY, in contrast to 46.74% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 19.77%. As the largest shareholder in INCY with 16.23% of the stake, Baker Bros. Advisors LP holds 36,175,400 shares worth 36,175,400. A second-largest stockholder of INCY, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 20,963,528 shares, controlling over 9.40% of the firm’s shares. Dodge & Cox is the third largest shareholder in INCY, holding 19,332,310 shares or 8.67% stake. With a 5.38% stake in INCY, the Dodge & Cox Stock Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 12,002,300 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which owns about 2.64% of INCY stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 5,895,030 shares valued at 438.65 million. Vanguard Mid Cap Index Fund holds 1.98% of the stake in INCY, owning 4,424,583 shares worth 329.23 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Mar 30, 2023, INCY reported revenue of $911.40M and operating income of $257.74M. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was $258.27M and diluted EPS was $0.72.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for INCY since 0 analysts follow the stock currently. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With INCY analysts setting a high price target of $109.00 and a low target of $60.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $81.52. Based on these targets, INCY could surge 73.37% to reach the target high and fall by -4.56% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 29.66% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded INCY stock several times over the past three months with 6 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 41,502 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 62 while that of sell transactions has risen to 39 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 390,184 while 182,476 shares were sold.

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