Are Smart Investors Making the Right Decision? Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG)

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) stock jumped 1.23% on Wednesday to $31.98 against a previous-day closing price of $31.59. With 1.44 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.55 million shares. During the session, the Oil & Gas E&P company that operates in wider Energy sector, reached to the highest price of $32.19 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $31.20. The 52-week range on NOG shows that it touched its highest point at $39.10 and its lowest point at $21.45 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $46.58. With its current market cap of 2.71 billion, NOG has annualized dividend of $1.48 while the current yield stands at 4.63%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.99.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of NOG was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 5.54%, but this was down by -1.02% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 0.57% while six-month performance fell -10.12%. The stock gained 10.35% in the past year, while it has gained 3.76% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for NOG yields 15.03 with Next year EPS estimates of 8.21. For the next quarter, that number is 1.66. This implies an EPS growth rate of 18.10% for this year and 6.66% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 11.90% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 48.60%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 84.92 million NOG shares are outstanding with a float of 59.80 million shares on hand for trading. On Apr 27, 2023, short shares totaled 11.78 million, which was 13.80% higher than short shares on Mar 30, 2023. In addition to Mr. Nicholas L. O’Grady as the firm’s Chief Exec. Officer, Mr. Adam Dirlam serves as its Pres.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 89.14% of NOG’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 56.39% of NOG, in contrast to 43.11% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 13.27%. As the largest shareholder in NOG with 12.09% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 10,306,989 shares worth 10,306,989. A second-largest stockholder of NOG, Fidelity Management & Research Co, holds 5,989,685 shares, controlling over 7.02% of the firm’s shares. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in NOG, holding 5,265,308 shares or 6.18% stake. With a 6.30% stake in NOG, the iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF is the largest stakeholder. A total of 5,373,886 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The American Funds Small Cap World Fu, which owns about 6.16% of NOG stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 5,254,000 shares valued at 174.28 million. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & holds 2.70% of the stake in NOG, owning 2,302,222 shares worth 76.36 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Mar 30, 2023, NOG reported revenue of $549.64M and operating income of $378.30M. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was $378.12M and diluted EPS was $2.74.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for NOG since 0 analysts follow the stock currently. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With NOG analysts setting a high price target of $58.00 and a low target of $39.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $46.67. Based on these targets, NOG could surge 81.36% to reach the target high and rise by 21.95% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 45.93% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded NOG stock several times over the past three months with 14 Buys and 6 Sells. In these transactions, 45,678 shares were bought while 84,624 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 47 while that of sell transactions has risen to 26 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 199,566 while 1,344,427 shares were sold.

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