A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL)

Global Net Lease Inc. (NYSE: GNL) stock jumped 1.73% on Tuesday to $10.56 against a previous-day closing price of $10.38. With 0.85 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.8 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Diversified company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $10.81 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $10.38. The 52-week range on GNL shows that it touched its highest point at $15.30 and its lowest point at $9.80 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $14.00. With its current market cap of 1.09 billion, GNL has annualized dividend of $1.60 while the current yield stands at 15.15%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.23.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of GNL was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 7.10%, but this was down by -6.30% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -24.25% while six-month performance fell -19.63%. The stock lost -22.58% in the past year, while it has lost -15.99% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for GNL yields -0.20 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.12. For the next quarter, that number is -0.02. This implies an EPS growth rate of 56.00% for this year and -33.30% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 103.78 million GNL shares are outstanding with a float of 103.46 million shares on hand for trading. On Apr 27, 2023, short shares totaled 2.55 million, which was 2.45% higher than short shares on Mar 30, 2023. In addition to Mr. James Larry Nelson as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Christopher J. Masterson CPA serves as its CFO, Treasurer & Sec.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 75.49% of GNL’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 48.72% of GNL, in contrast to 26.05% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.40%. As the largest shareholder in GNL with 16.34% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 16,963,220 shares worth 16,963,220. A second-largest stockholder of GNL, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 16,779,845 shares, controlling over 16.17% of the firm’s shares. SSgA Funds Management, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in GNL, holding 6,867,671 shares or 6.62% stake. With a 7.24% stake in GNL, the iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF is the largest stakeholder. A total of 7,514,595 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund, which owns about 4.40% of GNL stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 4,568,673 shares valued at 51.44 million. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF holds 3.04% of the stake in GNL, owning 3,152,973 shares worth 35.5 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Mar 30, 2023, GNL reported revenue of $95.18M and operating income of $30.91M. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was $72.05M and diluted EPS was -$0.06.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for GNL since 0 analysts follow the stock currently. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With GNL analysts setting a high price target of $19.00 and a low target of $10.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $14.00. Based on these targets, GNL could surge 79.92% to reach the target high and fall by -5.3% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 32.58% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded GNL stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 2,785 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has remained unchanged to 0 while that of sell transactions has risen to 3 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 0 while 5,288 shares were sold.

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