Taking on analysts’ expectations and winning: Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG)

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) stock fell -2.11% on Tuesday to $32.00 against a previous-day closing price of $32.69. With 0.93 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.35 million shares. During the session, the Oil & Gas E&P company that operates in wider Energy sector, reached to the highest price of $33.10 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $31.98. The 52-week range on NOG shows that it touched its highest point at $39.10 and its lowest point at $20.02 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $49.38. With its current market cap of 2.44 billion, NOG has annualized dividend of $1.20 while the current yield stands at 3.75%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 2.03.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of NOG was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -0.74%, but this was up by 1.11% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -7.19% while six-month performance rose 18.52%. The stock gained 47.19% in the past year, while it has gained 3.83% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for NOG yields 8.99 with Next year EPS estimates of 10.31. For the next quarter, that number is 1.86. This implies an EPS growth rate of 99.40% for this year and 35.73% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 11.90% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 69.20%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 78.59 million NOG shares are outstanding with a float of 66.45 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 9.42 million, which was 11.93% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Nicholas L. O’Grady as the firm’s Chief Exec. Officer, Mr. Adam Dirlam serves as its Pres.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 79.50% of NOG’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 48.58% of NOG, in contrast to 36.99% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 14.44%. As the largest shareholder in NOG with 7.77% of the stake, Capital Research & Management Co holds 6,054,000 shares worth 6,054,000. A second-largest stockholder of NOG, Angelo, Gordon & Co. LP, holds 5,469,564 shares, controlling over 7.02% of the firm’s shares. Fidelity Management & Research Co is the third largest shareholder in NOG, holding 5,403,289 shares or 6.94% stake. With a 7.77% stake in NOG, the American Funds Small Cap World Fu is the largest stakeholder. A total of 6,054,000 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration &, which owns about 3.54% of NOG stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 2,759,453 shares valued at 85.05 million. Invesco Small Cap Value Fund holds 2.62% of the stake in NOG, owning 2,040,980 shares worth 62.9 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for NOG since 13 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 12 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 0 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With NOG analysts setting a high price target of $62.00 and a low target of $30.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $49.46. Based on these targets, NOG could surge 93.75% to reach the target high and fall by -6.25% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 54.56% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. NOG will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $11.95 being high and $6.64 being low. For NOG, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $7.52. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Northern Oil and Gas Inc. surprised analysts by $0.06 when it reported $1.80 EPS against a consensus estimate of $1.74. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.09. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $2.18 and the low estimate is $1.53. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $1.78.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded NOG stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 9 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 536,533 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 31 while that of sell transactions has risen to 27 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 80,420 while 1,361,241 shares were sold.

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