Origin Materials Inc. (ORGN) can make a big difference with a little luck

Origin Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: ORGN) stock jumped 1.44% on Tuesday to $5.63 against a previous-day closing price of $5.55. With 0.52 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 0.81 million shares. During the session, the Chemicals company that operates in wider Basic Materials sector, reached to the highest price of $5.66 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $5.44. The 52-week range on ORGN shows that it touched its highest point at $7.71 and its lowest point at $4.18 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $12.60.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of ORGN was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 2.36%, but this was up by 10.18% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 9.53% while six-month performance rose 5.23%. The stock gained 3.87% in the past year, while it has gained 22.13% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for ORGN yields 0.48 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.53. For the next quarter, that number is -0.09. This implies an EPS growth rate of 238.80% for this year and -257.60% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 138.06 million ORGN shares are outstanding with a float of 104.96 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 8.17 million, which was 5.74% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. John Bissell as the firm’s Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director, Mr. Richard J. Riley serves as its Co-CEO & Director.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 31.28% of ORGN’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 20.08% of ORGN, in contrast to 15.98% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 11.50%. As the largest shareholder in ORGN with 5.27% of the stake, BNP Paribas Asset Management UK L holds 7,523,155 shares worth 7,523,155. A second-largest stockholder of ORGN, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 6,496,443 shares, controlling over 4.55% of the firm’s shares. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in ORGN, holding 5,514,842 shares or 3.87% stake. With a 4.80% stake in ORGN, the BNP Paribas Funds – Energy Transi is the largest stakeholder. A total of 6,843,307 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.10% of ORGN stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 2,995,000 shares valued at 13.81 million. iShares Russell 2000 ETF holds 1.65% of the stake in ORGN, owning 2,358,916 shares worth 10.87 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for ORGN since 6 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 5 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 1 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With ORGN analysts setting a high price target of $20.00 and a low target of $7.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $12.60. Based on these targets, ORGN could surge 255.24% to reach the target high and rise by 24.33% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 123.8% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. ORGN will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $0.36 being high and $0.25 being low. For ORGN, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $0.29. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Origin Materials Inc. surprised analysts by $0.04 when it reported -$0.04 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.08. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.02. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.07 and the low estimate is -$0.11. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.09.

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