Is Antero Resources Corporation (AR) positioned for future growth?

Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) stock fell -1.57% on Tuesday to $30.04 against a previous-day closing price of $30.52. With 4.78 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 6.16 million shares. During the session, the Oil & Gas E&P company that operates in wider Energy sector, reached to the highest price of $30.55 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $29.44. The 52-week range on AR shows that it touched its highest point at $48.80 and its lowest point at $15.98 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $44.07. Beta for the stock currently stands at 3.55.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of AR was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -0.23%, but this was down by -13.30% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -10.25% while six-month performance fell -23.31%. The stock gained 77.02% in the past year, while it has lost -3.07% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for AR yields 6.38 with Next year EPS estimates of 5.80. For the next quarter, that number is 1.11. This implies an EPS growth rate of 87.00% for this year and 2.06% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 305.34 million AR shares are outstanding with a float of 263.99 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 20.57 million, which was 6.72% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Paul M. Rady as the firm’s Co-Founder, Pres, Chairman & CEO, Mr. Michael N. Kennedy serves as its Sr. VP of Fin. & CFO.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 83.26% of AR’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 51.43% of AR, in contrast to 25.53% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 20.49%. As the largest shareholder in AR with 13.18% of the stake, Fidelity Management & Research Co holds 39,570,965 shares worth 39,570,965. A second-largest stockholder of AR, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 26,709,100 shares, controlling over 8.90% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in AR, holding 11,282,862 shares or 3.76% stake. With a 3.60% stake in AR, the Fidelity Advisor Series I -Growth is the largest stakeholder. A total of 10,794,947 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF, which owns about 2.84% of AR stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 8,518,999 shares valued at 264.0 million. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index holds 2.58% of the stake in AR, owning 7,755,487 shares worth 240.34 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for AR since 19 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 11 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 5 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 2 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 1 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With AR analysts setting a high price target of $55.00 and a low target of $29.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $42.13. Based on these targets, AR could surge 83.09% to reach the target high and fall by -3.46% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 40.25% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. AR will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/14/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $6.32 being high and $5.16 being low. For AR, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $5.56. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Antero Resources Corporation surprised analysts by -$0.24 when it reported $1.63 EPS against a consensus estimate of $1.87. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.22. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $1.20 and the low estimate is $0.70. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.97.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded AR stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 2,750 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 44 while that of sell transactions has risen to 20 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 2,200,588 while 1,752,326 shares were sold.

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