Check Out Alcoa Corporation (AA)’s Trade Data Rather Than the Analysts’ Views

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) stock jumped 2.16% on Tuesday to $52.87 against a previous-day closing price of $51.75. With 5.56 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 5.35 million shares. During the session, the Aluminum company that operates in wider Basic Materials sector, reached to the highest price of $54.06 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $51.20. The 52-week range on AA shows that it touched its highest point at $98.09 and its lowest point at $33.55 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $52.55. With its current market cap of 9.08 billion, AA has annualized dividend of $0.40 while the current yield stands at 0.76%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 2.47.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of AA was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -3.63%, but this was up by 17.83% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 28.76% while six-month performance rose 12.97%. The stock lost -5.94% in the past year, while it has gained 16.27% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for AA yields -0.83 with Next year EPS estimates of 4.80. For the next quarter, that number is 0.11. This implies an EPS growth rate of 347.00% for this year and 83.87% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 12.30% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 24.80%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 179.00 million AA shares are outstanding with a float of 175.35 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 8.14 million, which was 4.52% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Roy C. Harvey as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. William F. Oplinger serves as its Exec. VP & CFO.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 86.99% of AA’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 8.42% of AA, in contrast to 48.56% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 33.12%. As the largest shareholder in AA with 9.94% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 17,586,789 shares worth 17,586,789. A second-largest stockholder of AA, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 15,008,431 shares, controlling over 8.48% of the firm’s shares. SSgA Funds Management, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in AA, holding 7,269,141 shares or 4.11% stake. With a 3.09% stake in AA, the iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF is the largest stakeholder. A total of 5,458,852 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 3.04% of AA stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 5,374,987 shares valued at 244.4 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund holds 2.58% of the stake in AA, owning 4,558,964 shares worth 207.3 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for AA since 14 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 5 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 9 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With AA analysts setting a high price target of $65.00 and a low target of $42.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $52.55. Based on these targets, AA could surge 22.94% to reach the target high and fall by -20.56% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a decline of -0.61% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. AA will report FY 2023 earnings on 01/17/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $5.63 being high and $0.50 being low. For AA, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $2.36. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Alcoa Corporation surprised analysts by $0.11 when it reported -$0.70 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.81. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.41. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.56 and the low estimate is -$0.46. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.14.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded AA stock several times over the past three months with 1 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 1,538 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 53 while that of sell transactions has risen to 20 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 836,151 while 548,481 shares were sold.

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