Adversity is less terrifying than hope: Etsy Inc. (ETSY)

Etsy Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY) stock fell -1.75% on Tuesday to $136.68 against a previous-day closing price of $139.12. With 3.04 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 3.2 million shares. During the session, the Internet Retail company that operates in wider Consumer Cyclical sector, reached to the highest price of $139.31 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $135.50. The 52-week range on ETSY shows that it touched its highest point at $163.84 and its lowest point at $67.01 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $125.32. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.86.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of ETSY was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 3.15%, but this was up by 1.75% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 35.45% while six-month performance rose 41.68%. The stock lost -8.18% in the past year, while it has gained 14.11% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for ETSY yields -5.45 with Next year EPS estimates of 2.74. For the next quarter, that number is 0.82. This implies an EPS growth rate of 23.60% for this year and 152.20% for next year. EPS is expected to decline by -1.70% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 71.40%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 126.35 million ETSY shares are outstanding with a float of 124.75 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 12.1 million, which was 9.55% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Joshua G. Silverman as the firm’s CEO, Pres & Director, Ms. Rachel C. Glaser serves as its Chief Financial Officer.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 103.64% of ETSY’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 57.36% of ETSY, in contrast to 41.53% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 12.92%. As the largest shareholder in ETSY with 10.59% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 13,313,516 shares worth 13,313,516. A second-largest stockholder of ETSY, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 6,795,239 shares, controlling over 5.41% of the firm’s shares. Wellington Management Co. LLP is the third largest shareholder in ETSY, holding 6,630,852 shares or 5.28% stake. With a 3.04% stake in ETSY, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 3,816,999 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The American Funds Growth Fund of Ame, which owns about 2.47% of ETSY stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 3,103,761 shares valued at 371.77 million. Vanguard Mid Cap Index Fund holds 2.33% of the stake in ETSY, owning 2,928,576 shares worth 350.78 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for ETSY since 30 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 11 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 1 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 14 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 4 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With ETSY analysts setting a high price target of $186.00 and a low target of $47.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $126.16. Based on these targets, ETSY could surge 36.08% to reach the target high and fall by -65.61% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a decline of -7.7% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. ETSY will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $4.01 being high and -$5.69 being low. For ETSY, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$4.72. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Etsy Inc. surprised analysts by -$7.99 when it reported -$7.62 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.37. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.19. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $1.22 and the low estimate is $0.64. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.80.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded ETSY stock several times over the past three months with 14 Buys and 51 Sells. In these transactions, 215,504 shares were bought while 245,153 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 61 while that of sell transactions has risen to 179 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 739,607 while 701,700 shares were sold.

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