A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Twilio Inc. (TWLO)

Twilio Inc. (NYSE: TWLO) stock jumped 0.09% on Tuesday to $56.41 against a previous-day closing price of $56.36. With 4.87 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 4.81 million shares. During the session, the Internet Content & Information company that operates in wider Communication Services sector, reached to the highest price of $59.66 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $55.67. The 52-week range on TWLO shows that it touched its highest point at $233.60 and its lowest point at $41.00 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $81.37. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.34.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of TWLO was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 2.08%, but this was up by 20.25% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -25.24% while six-month performance fell -34.85%. The stock lost -70.63% in the past year, while it has gained 15.22% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for TWLO yields -7.25 with Next year EPS estimates of 0.17. For the next quarter, that number is -0.09. This implies an EPS growth rate of -63.00% for this year and 134.80% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 183.69 million TWLO shares are outstanding with a float of 173.28 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 8.16 million, which was 4.46% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Jeffrey Lawson as the firm’s Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, Mr. Khozema Z. Shipchandler serves as its COO & Principal Financial Officer.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 85.10% of TWLO’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 44.47% of TWLO, in contrast to 42.93% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 1.86%. As the largest shareholder in TWLO with 9.06% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 15,811,929 shares worth 15,811,929. A second-largest stockholder of TWLO, Fidelity Management & Research Co, holds 8,387,564 shares, controlling over 4.81% of the firm’s shares. Baillie Gifford & Co. is the third largest shareholder in TWLO, holding 6,920,682 shares or 3.97% stake. With a 3.05% stake in TWLO, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 5,313,520 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The ARK Innovation ETF, which owns about 2.85% of TWLO stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 4,974,464 shares valued at 243.55 million. Vanguard Mid Cap Index Fund holds 2.33% of the stake in TWLO, owning 4,058,186 shares worth 198.69 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for TWLO since 35 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 19 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 15 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 1 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With TWLO analysts setting a high price target of $140.00 and a low target of $44.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $72.98. Based on these targets, TWLO could surge 148.18% to reach the target high and fall by -22.0% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 29.37% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. TWLO will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/07/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$0.31 being high and -$0.58 being low. For TWLO, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.46. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Twilio Inc. surprised analysts by $0.12 when it reported -$0.27 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.39. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.08. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.06 and the low estimate is -$0.21. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.08.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded TWLO stock several times over the past three months with 10 Buys and 14 Sells. In these transactions, 16,073 shares were bought while 25,243 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 48 while that of sell transactions has risen to 77 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 260,088 while 95,141 shares were sold.

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