A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) stock fell -0.37% on Tuesday to $10.68 against a previous-day closing price of $10.72. With 33.09 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 49.87 million shares. During the session, the Travel Services company that operates in wider Consumer Cyclical sector, reached to the highest price of $10.96 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $10.40. The 52-week range on CCL shows that it touched its highest point at $23.86 and its lowest point at $6.11 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $10.36. Beta for the stock currently stands at 2.17.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of CCL was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -1.84%, but this was up by 25.94% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 30.24% while six-month performance rose 16.34%. The stock lost -46.57% in the past year, while it has gained 32.51% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for CCL yields -5.19 with Next year EPS estimates of 0.93. For the next quarter, that number is -0.60. This implies an EPS growth rate of 35.90% for this year and 1428.60% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 1.19 billion CCL shares are outstanding with a float of 1.02 billion shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 144.52 million, which was 11.13% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Micky Meir Arison as the firm’s Exec. Chairman, Mr. David Bernstein serves as its CFO & Chief Accounting Officer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 46.17% of CCL’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 7.63% of CCL, in contrast to 24.92% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 21.98%. As the largest shareholder in CCL with 10.06% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 111,933,967 shares worth 111,933,967. A second-largest stockholder of CCL, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 43,321,237 shares, controlling over 3.89% of the firm’s shares. Truist Bank is the third largest shareholder in CCL, holding 36,624,255 shares or 3.29% stake. With a 2.74% stake in CCL, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 30,450,640 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Mid Cap Index Fund, which owns about 2.09% of CCL stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 23,286,340 shares valued at 187.69 million. Vanguard 500 Index Fund holds 2.08% of the stake in CCL, owning 23,148,154 shares worth 186.57 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for CCL since 22 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 6 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 4 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 9 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 2 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 1 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With CCL analysts setting a high price target of $18.00 and a low target of $6.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $10.19. Based on these targets, CCL could surge 68.54% to reach the target high and fall by -43.82% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a decline of -4.59% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. CCL will report FY 2023 earnings on 12/20/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $0.85 being high and -$0.27 being low. For CCL, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $0.03. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Carnival Corporation & plc surprised analysts by $0.03 when it reported -$0.85 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.88. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.52. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.23 and the low estimate is -$0.64. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.58.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded CCL stock several times over the past three months with 2 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 14,292 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 48 while that of sell transactions has risen to 16 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 666,054 while 248,465 shares were sold.

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