Taking on analysts’ expectations and winning: Avaya Holdings Corp. (AVYA)

Avaya Holdings Corp. (NYSE: AVYA) stock jumped 5.02% on Monday to $0.23 against a previous-day closing price of $0.22. With 4.86 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 11.91 million shares. During the session, the Software – Application company that operates in wider Technology sector, reached to the highest price of $0.2480 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $0.2239. The 52-week range on AVYA shows that it touched its highest point at $18.62 and its lowest point at $0.12 during that stretch. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.15.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of AVYA was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -16.88%, but this was up by 12.64% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -80.47% while six-month performance fell -89.35%. The stock lost -98.71% in the past year, while it has gained 19.59% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for AVYA yields -17.03 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.07. For the next quarter, that number is -0.25. This implies an EPS growth rate of 97.30% for this year and -115.90% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 4.30% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 33.40%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 85.60 million AVYA shares are outstanding with a float of 71.40 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 18.15 million, which was 20.90% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Kieran J. McGrath as the firm’s Exec. VP & CFO, Ms. Shefali A. Shah Esq. serves as its Exec. VP & Chief Admin. Officer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 105.77% of AVYA’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 33.27% of AVYA, in contrast to 26.45% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 11.78%. As the largest shareholder in AVYA with 7.23% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 6,281,362 shares worth 6,281,362. A second-largest stockholder of AVYA, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 3,917,250 shares, controlling over 4.51% of the firm’s shares. Capital Research & Management Co is the third largest shareholder in AVYA, holding 3,363,700 shares or 3.87% stake. With a 2.61% stake in AVYA, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 2,265,900 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which owns about 2.46% of AVYA stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 2,136,268 shares valued at 0.42 million. Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund holds 1.79% of the stake in AVYA, owning 1,554,851 shares worth 0.3 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for AVYA since 1 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 0 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 1 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With AVYA analysts setting a high price target of $0.40 and a low target of $0.40, the average target price over the next 12 months is $0.40. Based on these targets, AVYA could surge 73.91% to reach the target high and rise by 73.91% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 73.91% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. AVYA will report FY 2023 earnings on 11/20/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$0.65 being high and -$0.65 being low. For AVYA, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.65. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.29. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.34 and the low estimate is -$0.34. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.34.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded AVYA stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 2 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 4,762,918 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 49 while that of sell transactions has risen to 25 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 4,807,121 while 5,123,895 shares were sold.

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