A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)

Ardmore Shipping Corporation (NYSE: ASC) stock fell -6.21% on Monday to $12.98 against a previous-day closing price of $13.84. With 0.98 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.78 million shares. During the session, the Oil & Gas Midstream company that operates in wider Energy sector, reached to the highest price of $13.80 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $12.95. The 52-week range on ASC shows that it touched its highest point at $16.32 and its lowest point at $3.09 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $16.75. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.60.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of ASC was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -7.94%, but this was down by -14.27% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 13.56% while six-month performance rose 65.77%. The stock gained 289.79% in the past year, while it has lost -9.92% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for ASC yields 1.85 with Next year EPS estimates of 2.14. For the next quarter, that number is 1.12. This implies an EPS growth rate of -518.00% for this year and -43.74% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 42.64% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of -61.70%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 38.77 million ASC shares are outstanding with a float of 36.92 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 1.38 million, which was 3.46% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Anthony Gurnee CFA as the firm’s Founder, Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Bart B. Kelleher serves as its Chief Financial Officer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 66.04% of ASC’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 49.76% of ASC, in contrast to 29.79% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for –. As the largest shareholder in ASC with 6.96% of the stake, Aristotle Capital Boston LLC holds 2,393,165 shares worth 2,393,165. A second-largest stockholder of ASC, Private Management Group, Inc., holds 2,287,398 shares, controlling over 6.66% of the firm’s shares. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is the third largest shareholder in ASC, holding 2,178,245 shares or 6.34% stake. With a 2.61% stake in ASC, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is the largest stakeholder. A total of 895,076 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Royce Small-Cap Opportunity Fund, which owns about 2.07% of ASC stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 712,393 shares valued at 10.27 million. DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio holds 1.58% of the stake in ASC, owning 541,149 shares worth 7.8 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for ASC since 4 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 4 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 0 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With ASC analysts setting a high price target of $18.00 and a low target of $14.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $16.75. Based on these targets, ASC could surge 38.67% to reach the target high and rise by 7.86% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 29.04% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. ASC will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/13/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $3.80 being high and $3.40 being low. For ASC, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $3.58. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Ardmore Shipping Corporation surprised analysts by $0.10 when it reported $1.54 EPS against a consensus estimate of $1.44. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.09. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $1.32 and the low estimate is $0.98. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $1.21.

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