Taking the lead: Gevo Inc. (GEVO)

Gevo Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) stock jumped 5.67% on Friday to $2.05 against a previous-day closing price of $1.94. With 7.32 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 6.91 million shares. During the session, the Specialty Chemicals company that operates in wider Basic Materials sector, reached to the highest price of $2.0600 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $1.9350. The 52-week range on GEVO shows that it touched its highest point at $5.49 and its lowest point at $1.65 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $7.51. Beta for the stock currently stands at 3.10.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of GEVO was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -2.38%, but this was up by 13.89% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -8.07% while six-month performance fell -24.63%. The stock lost -45.62% in the past year, while it has gained 7.89% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for GEVO yields -0.41 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.24. For the next quarter, that number is -0.06. This implies an EPS growth rate of 57.20% for this year and 33.30% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 25.00% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 72.50%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 236.65 million GEVO shares are outstanding with a float of 230.16 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 47.78 million, which was 20.32% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Dr. Patrick R. Gruber M.B.A., Ph.D., MBA as the firm’s CEO & Director, Dr. Christopher M. Ryan serves as its Pres & COO.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 54.55% of GEVO’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 30.78% of GEVO, in contrast to 3.49% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 16.03%. As the largest shareholder in GEVO with 10.71% of the stake, SSgA Funds Management, Inc. holds 25,407,268 shares worth 25,407,268. A second-largest stockholder of GEVO, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 18,406,056 shares, controlling over 7.76% of the firm’s shares. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in GEVO, holding 12,151,908 shares or 5.12% stake. With a 9.14% stake in GEVO, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & is the largest stakeholder. A total of 21,679,841 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.80% of GEVO stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 6,638,561 shares valued at 12.61 million. iShares II Plc – Global Clean Ene holds 2.15% of the stake in GEVO, owning 5,092,820 shares worth 9.68 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for GEVO since 4 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 2 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 2 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With GEVO analysts setting a high price target of $18.00 and a low target of $2.25, the average target price over the next 12 months is $6.89. Based on these targets, GEVO could surge 778.05% to reach the target high and rise by 9.76% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 236.1% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. GEVO will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$0.27 being high and -$0.39 being low. For GEVO, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.36. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Gevo Inc. surprised analysts by -$0.12 when it reported -$0.19 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.07. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.02. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.05 and the low estimate is -$0.06. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.06.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded GEVO stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 3 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 60,590 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 14 while that of sell transactions has risen to 24 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 1,718,404 while 1,409,600 shares were sold.

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