A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: BioAtla Inc. (BCAB)

BioAtla Inc. (NASDAQ: BCAB) stock jumped 8.07% on Friday to $3.48 against a previous-day closing price of $3.22. With 1.38 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.86 million shares. During the session, the Biotechnology company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $3.5200 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $3.2200. The 52-week range on BCAB shows that it touched its highest point at $12.15 and its lowest point at $2.01 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $26.14.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of BCAB was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 2.35%, but this was down by -57.14% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -44.67% while six-month performance fell -19.63%. The stock lost -67.84% in the past year, while it has lost -57.82% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for BCAB yields -2.74 with Next year EPS estimates of -2.71. For the next quarter, that number is -0.70. This implies an EPS growth rate of -147.10% for this year and 3.90% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 47.32 million BCAB shares are outstanding with a float of 40.18 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 5.09 million, which was 13.56% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Dr. Jay M. Short Ph.D. as the firm’s Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman, Mr. Scott Andrew Smith serves as its Pres & Director.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 70.89% of BCAB’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 39.22% of BCAB, in contrast to 38.32% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 19.15%. As the largest shareholder in BCAB with 9.13% of the stake, Soleus Capital Management LP holds 4,213,375 shares worth 4,213,375. A second-largest stockholder of BCAB, Cormorant Asset Management LP, holds 2,181,115 shares, controlling over 4.73% of the firm’s shares. Janus Henderson Investors US LLC is the third largest shareholder in BCAB, holding 2,174,725 shares or 4.71% stake. With a 3.09% stake in BCAB, the HBM Healthcare Investments is the largest stakeholder. A total of 1,427,317 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.82% of BCAB stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 1,302,896 shares valued at 10.75 million. Belfius Equities – Cure holds 1.98% of the stake in BCAB, owning 913,642 shares worth 7.54 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for BCAB since 7 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 6 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 1 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With BCAB analysts setting a high price target of $68.00 and a low target of $8.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $26.14. Based on these targets, BCAB could surge 1854.02% to reach the target high and rise by 129.89% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 651.15% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. BCAB will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/27/2024. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$2.52 being high and -$3.24 being low. For BCAB, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$2.87. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. BioAtla Inc. surprised analysts by $0.11 when it reported -$0.69 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.80. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.07. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.45 and the low estimate is -$0.92. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.73.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded BCAB stock several times over the past three months with 2 Buys and 9 Sells. In these transactions, 5,700 shares were bought while 7,573 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 7 while that of sell transactions has risen to 49 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 58,700 while 51,936 shares were sold.

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