A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Crescent Energy Company (CRGY)

Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) stock fell -2.48% on Wednesday to $14.14 against a previous-day closing price of $14.50. With 0.26 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 0.49 million shares. The 52-week range on CRGY shows that it touched its highest point at $19.65 and its lowest point at $10.86 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $17.25. With its current market cap of 2.39 billion, CRGY has annualized dividend of $0.68 while the current yield stands at 4.81%.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of CRGY was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 2.09%, but this was down by -3.15% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -17.79% while six-month performance fell -18.17%. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for CRGY yields 6.71 with Next year EPS estimates of 2.97. For the next quarter, that number is 1.02. This implies an EPS growth rate of -204.20% for this year and 29.17% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 168.99 million CRGY shares are outstanding with a float of 38.43 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 4.67 million, which was 9.67% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. David C. Rockecharlie as the firm’s CEO & Director, Ms. Brandi Kendall serves as its CFO & Director.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 46.33% of CRGY’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 34.17% of CRGY, in contrast to 22.27% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 16.82%. As the largest shareholder in CRGY with 9.94% of the stake, Crescent Real Estate LLC holds 4,684,598 shares worth 4,684,598. A second-largest stockholder of CRGY, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 3,120,505 shares, controlling over 6.62% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in CRGY, holding 1,820,680 shares or 3.86% stake. With a 2.30% stake in CRGY, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 1,084,502 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund, which owns about 1.94% of CRGY stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 914,493 shares valued at 12.6 million. iShares Russell 2000 ETF holds 1.55% of the stake in CRGY, owning 731,454 shares worth 10.08 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for CRGY since 4 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 2 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 2 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With CRGY analysts setting a high price target of $20.00 and a low target of $15.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $17.25. Based on these targets, CRGY could surge 41.44% to reach the target high and rise by 6.08% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 21.99% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. CRGY will report FY 2022 earnings on 03/08/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $5.60 being high and $3.12 being low. For CRGY, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $3.99. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Crescent Energy Company surprised analysts by $1.52 when it reported $2.74 EPS against a consensus estimate of $1.22. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $1.02 and the low estimate is $0.74. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.89.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded CRGY stock several times over the past three months with 2 Buys and 5 Sells. In these transactions, 12,644,708 shares were bought while 24,717,062 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 43 while that of sell transactions has risen to 5 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 32,193,194 while 24,717,062 shares were sold.

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