A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Selecta Biosciences Inc. (SELB)

Selecta Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: SELB) stock jumped 2.38% on Tuesday to $1.29 against a previous-day closing price of $1.26. With 0.5 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 0.87 million shares. During the session, the Biotechnology company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $1.3100 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $1.2001. The 52-week range on SELB shows that it touched its highest point at $3.64 and its lowest point at $0.65 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $6.86. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.97.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of SELB was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -15.13%, but this was down by -20.37% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -38.28% while six-month performance rose 86.79%. The stock lost -58.92% in the past year, while it has lost -60.43% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for SELB yields 0.34 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.32. For the next quarter, that number is -0.07. This implies an EPS growth rate of 67.00% for this year and -366.70% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 152.85 million SELB shares are outstanding with a float of 114.59 million shares on hand for trading. On Oct 13, 2022, short shares totaled 7.8 million, which was 5.11% higher than short shares on Sep 14, 2022. In addition to Dr. Carsten Brunn Ph.D. as the firm’s CEO, Pres & Director, Ms. Ann K. Donohue CPA serves as its VP of Fin. & Controller.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 46.75% of SELB’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 8.46% of SELB, in contrast to 32.38% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 26.67%. As the largest shareholder in SELB with 3.99% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 6,097,089 shares worth 6,097,089. A second-largest stockholder of SELB, Mangrove Partners, holds 5,260,419 shares, controlling over 3.45% of the firm’s shares. Invus Public Equities Advisors LL is the third largest shareholder in SELB, holding 4,883,200 shares or 3.20% stake. With a 2.11% stake in SELB, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 3,220,645 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Extended Market Index Fu, which owns about 1.15% of SELB stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 1,752,532 shares valued at 2.77 million. JPMorgan Funds – Thematics – Gene holds 1.09% of the stake in SELB, owning 1,667,314 shares worth 2.63 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for SELB since 8 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 8 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 0 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With SELB analysts setting a high price target of $10.00 and a low target of $4.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $6.86. Based on these targets, SELB could surge 675.19% to reach the target high and rise by 210.08% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 431.78% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. SELB will report FY 2022 earnings on 03/16/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $0.17 being high and $0.04 being low. For SELB, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $0.12. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Selecta Biosciences Inc. surprised analysts by -$0.04 when it reported -$0.05 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.01. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.14. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.03 and the low estimate is -$0.14. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.07.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded SELB stock several times over the past three months with 1 Buys and 2 Sells. In these transactions, 10,937 shares were bought while 7,460 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 24 while that of sell transactions has risen to 12 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 11,588,263 while 71,323 shares were sold.

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