Wall Street analysts’ outlook for United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) stock fell -3.43% on Friday to $167.86 against a previous-day closing price of $173.83. With 5.22 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 2.75 million shares. During the session, the Integrated Freight & Logistics company that operates in wider Industrials sector, reached to the highest price of $171.85 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $167.72. The 52-week range on UPS shows that it touched its highest point at $233.72 and its lowest point at $165.34 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $210.46. With its current market cap of 152.66 billion, UPS has annualized dividend of $6.08 while the current yield stands at 3.62%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.07.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of UPS was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -9.26%, but this was down by -18.22% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -6.03% while six-month performance fell -21.77%. The stock lost -9.41% in the past year, while it has lost -21.69% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for UPS yields 12.46 with Next year EPS estimates of 13.03. For the next quarter, that number is 2.88. This implies an EPS growth rate of 852.10% for this year and 1.23% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 5.61% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 30.60%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 874.00 million UPS shares are outstanding with a float of 730.55 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 11.93 million, which was 1.37% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Ms. Carol B. Tome as the firm’s CEO & Director, Mr. Brian Newman serves as its Exec. VP & CFO.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 71.43% of UPS’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 39.40% of UPS, in contrast to 32.93% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.18%. As the largest shareholder in UPS with 8.66% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 63,391,503 shares worth 63,391,503. A second-largest stockholder of UPS, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 37,622,469 shares, controlling over 5.14% of the firm’s shares. SSgA Funds Management, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in UPS, holding 28,468,146 shares or 3.89% stake. With a 2.97% stake in UPS, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 21,738,327 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard 500 Index Fund, which owns about 2.24% of UPS stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 16,390,942 shares valued at 3.19 billion. Fidelity 500 Index Fund holds 1.08% of the stake in UPS, owning 7,885,939 shares worth 1.53 billion.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for UPS since 30 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 12 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 2 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 13 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 3 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With UPS analysts setting a high price target of $251.00 and a low target of $148.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $210.89. Based on these targets, UPS could surge 49.53% to reach the target high and fall by -11.83% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 25.63% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. UPS will report FY 2022 earnings on 01/31/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $13.03 being high and $12.45 being low. For UPS, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $12.86. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. United Parcel Service Inc. surprised analysts by $0.13 when it reported $3.29 EPS against a consensus estimate of $3.16. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.16. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $3.09 and the low estimate is $2.70. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $2.87.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded UPS stock several times over the past three months with 3 Buys and 4 Sells. In these transactions, 25,905 shares were bought while 39,005 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 27 while that of sell transactions has risen to 34 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 310,119 while 293,550 shares were sold.

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