There is no way Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) can keep these numbers up

Freshpet Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT) stock jumped 15.88% on Friday to $45.47 against a previous-day closing price of $39.24. With 3.3 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 1.01 million shares. During the session, the Packaged Foods company that operates in wider Consumer Defensive sector, reached to the highest price of $48.66 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $37.92. The 52-week range on FRPT shows that it touched its highest point at $159.66 and its lowest point at $36.02 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $65.75. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.93.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of FRPT was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 9.25%, but this was down by -1.77% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -20.91% while six-month performance fell -53.71%. The stock lost -70.34% in the past year, while it has lost -52.27% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for FRPT yields -1.12 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.21. For the next quarter, that number is -0.27. This implies an EPS growth rate of -762.70% for this year and 140.30% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 47.82 million FRPT shares are outstanding with a float of 46.27 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 4.61 million, which was 9.65% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. William B. Cyr as the firm’s CEO & Exec. Director, Mr. Scott James Morris serves as its Co-Founder, Pres & COO.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 102.46% of FRPT’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 65.47% of FRPT, in contrast to 48.30% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 17.60%. As the largest shareholder in FRPT with 8.70% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 4,158,876 shares worth 4,158,876. A second-largest stockholder of FRPT, Wasatch Advisors, Inc., holds 4,075,649 shares, controlling over 8.52% of the firm’s shares. Champlain Investment Partners LLC is the third largest shareholder in FRPT, holding 3,670,870 shares or 7.68% stake. With a 2.93% stake in FRPT, the Champlain Mid Cap Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 1,400,000 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.80% of FRPT stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 1,337,642 shares valued at 58.23 million. American Funds Small Cap World Fu holds 2.79% of the stake in FRPT, owning 1,333,452 shares worth 58.05 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for FRPT since 17 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 12 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 1 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 3 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With FRPT analysts setting a high price target of $100.00 and a low target of $32.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $65.75. Based on these targets, FRPT could surge 119.93% to reach the target high and fall by -29.62% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 44.6% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. FRPT will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/27/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$0.77 being high and -$1.13 being low. For FRPT, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.99. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Freshpet Inc. surprised analysts by -$0.31 when it reported -$0.45 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.14. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.00. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.01 and the low estimate is -$0.33. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.19.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded FRPT stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 22 while that of sell transactions has risen to 10 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 52,637 while 17,177 shares were sold.

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