Taking the lead: National Retail Properties Inc. (NNN)

National Retail Properties Inc. (NYSE: NNN) stock fell -0.94% on Friday to $42.32 against a previous-day closing price of $42.72. With 1.11 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 1.03 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Retail company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $42.66 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $41.96. The 52-week range on NNN shows that it touched its highest point at $48.90 and its lowest point at $39.12 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $49.46. With its current market cap of 7.46 billion, NNN has annualized dividend of $2.20 while the current yield stands at 5.20%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.83.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of NNN was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -3.51%, but this was down by -7.62% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -1.28% while six-month performance fell -1.76%. The stock lost -6.41% in the past year, while it has lost -11.96% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for NNN yields 1.71 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.85. For the next quarter, that number is 0.45. This implies an EPS growth rate of 23.50% for this year and 3.53% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 10.46% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 1.70%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 177.11 million NNN shares are outstanding with a float of 175.59 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 3.21 million, which was 1.82% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Stephen A. Horn Jr. as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Kevin B. Habicht serves as its CFO, Exec. VP, Treasurer, Assistant Sec. & Director.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 93.75% of NNN’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 57.86% of NNN, in contrast to 34.12% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 3.50%. As the largest shareholder in NNN with 14.51% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 25,693,099 shares worth 25,693,099. A second-largest stockholder of NNN, SSgA Funds Management, Inc., holds 20,228,917 shares, controlling over 11.42% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in NNN, holding 15,987,820 shares or 9.03% stake. With a 4.68% stake in NNN, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF is the largest stakeholder. A total of 8,287,918 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund, which owns about 4.55% of NNN stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 8,056,224 shares valued at 361.72 million. Victory Sycamore Established Valu holds 3.12% of the stake in NNN, owning 5,525,000 shares worth 248.07 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for NNN since 15 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 5 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 8 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 1 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With NNN analysts setting a high price target of $54.00 and a low target of $45.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $49.46. Based on these targets, NNN could surge 27.6% to reach the target high and rise by 6.33% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 16.87% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. NNN will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/14/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $1.91 being high and $1.77 being low. For NNN, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $1.81. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. National Retail Properties Inc. surprised analysts by -$0.05 when it reported $0.42 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.47. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.03. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.45 and the low estimate is $0.44. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.45.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded NNN stock several times over the past three months with 8 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 7,730 shares were bought while 10,520 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 46 while that of sell transactions has risen to 7 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 370,949 while 168,898 shares were sold.

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