Taking on analysts’ expectations and winning: Broadstone Net Lease Inc. (BNL)

Broadstone Net Lease Inc. (NYSE: BNL) stock fell -2.07% on Friday to $17.95 against a previous-day closing price of $18.33. With 1.04 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.88 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Diversified company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $18.29 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $17.80. The 52-week range on BNL shows that it touched its highest point at $27.25 and its lowest point at $18.29 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $24.80. With its current market cap of 2.97 billion, BNL has annualized dividend of $1.08 while the current yield stands at 6.02%.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of BNL was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -5.08%, but this was down by -11.84% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -13.62% while six-month performance fell -15.53%. The stock lost -29.72% in the past year, while it has lost -27.68% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for BNL yields 0.72 with Next year EPS estimates of 0.66. For the next quarter, that number is 0.17. This implies an EPS growth rate of 52.70% for this year and -5.29% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 169.56 million BNL shares are outstanding with a float of 157.10 million shares on hand for trading. On Aug 30, 2022, short shares totaled 16.08 million, which was 9.29% higher than short shares on Jul 28, 2022. In addition to Mr. Christopher J. Czarnecki as the firm’s CEO, Pres & Non-Independent Director, Mr. Ryan M. Albano CPA serves as its Exec. VP & CFO.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 78.96% of BNL’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 42.21% of BNL, in contrast to 36.71% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 2.48%. As the largest shareholder in BNL with 13.35% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 23,102,627 shares worth 23,102,627. A second-largest stockholder of BNL, Principal Global Investors LLC, holds 12,903,788 shares, controlling over 7.45% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in BNL, holding 12,215,636 shares or 7.06% stake. With a 4.33% stake in BNL, the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 7,497,078 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.78% of BNL stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 4,805,966 shares valued at 91.99 million. Principal Investors – Real Estate holds 2.66% of the stake in BNL, owning 4,611,057 shares worth 88.26 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Jun 29, 2022, BNL reported revenue of $98.01M and operating income of $47.14M. It generated $33.52M net income for the quarter, which came to $119.26M over the last twelve months. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was $85.28M and diluted EPS was $0.20. EBITDA for the full year was $355.12M.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for BNL since 7 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 2 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 4 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With BNL analysts setting a high price target of $25.00 and a low target of $21.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $24.00. Based on these targets, BNL could surge 39.28% to reach the target high and rise by 16.99% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 33.7% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. BNL will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/21/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $0.72 being high and $0.69 being low. For BNL, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $0.70. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Broadstone Net Lease Inc. surprised analysts by $0.03 when it reported $0.20 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.17. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.00. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.17 and the low estimate is $0.16. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.17.

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