AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) looking to reclaim success with recent performance

AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) stock fell -2.36% on Friday to $10.77 against a previous-day closing price of $11.03. With 9.52 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 8.24 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Mortgage company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $11.05 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $10.71. The 52-week range on AGNC shows that it touched its highest point at $16.75 and its lowest point at $9.99 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $12.32. With its current market cap of 5.60 billion, AGNC has annualized dividend of $1.44 while the current yield stands at 13.37%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.07.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of AGNC was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -3.75%, but this was down by -12.58% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -3.58% while six-month performance fell -17.60%. The stock lost -33.56% in the past year, while it has lost -28.39% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for AGNC yields -1.91 with Next year EPS estimates of 2.17. For the next quarter, that number is 0.58. This implies an EPS growth rate of 286.60% for this year and -18.03% for next year. EPS is expected to decline by -1.81% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of -7.30%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 526.20 million AGNC shares are outstanding with a float of 520.45 million shares on hand for trading. On Aug 30, 2022, short shares totaled 18.87 million, which was 3.61% higher than short shares on Jul 28, 2022. In addition to Mr. Gary D. Kain as the firm’s Exec. Chairman, Mr. Peter J. Federico serves as its Pres, CEO & Director.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 45.44% of AGNC’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 24.42% of AGNC, in contrast to 20.95% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.90%. As the largest shareholder in AGNC with 9.05% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 47,283,429 shares worth 47,283,429. A second-largest stockholder of AGNC, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 27,060,591 shares, controlling over 5.18% of the firm’s shares. SSgA Funds Management, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in AGNC, holding 12,755,860 shares or 2.44% stake. With a 2.96% stake in AGNC, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 15,449,039 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund, which owns about 2.53% of AGNC stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 13,246,766 shares valued at 158.3 million. Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fu holds 1.68% of the stake in AGNC, owning 8,768,332 shares worth 104.78 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for AGNC since 12 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 5 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 7 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With AGNC analysts setting a high price target of $13.00 and a low target of $11.50, the average target price over the next 12 months is $12.25. Based on these targets, AGNC could surge 20.71% to reach the target high and rise by 6.78% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 13.74% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. AGNC will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/01/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $2.89 being high and $2.54 being low. For AGNC, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $2.71. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. AGNC Investment Corp. surprised analysts by $0.24 when it reported $0.83 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.59. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.09. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.72 and the low estimate is $0.49. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.59.

Dividends & Yield:

In terms of dividends, AGNC has a current ratio of $1.44, which is $1.44 over the trailing 12-months, while a dividend of $1.84 is likely to be paid on average over the next five years. Dividend yield is another indicator that appeals to many investors, and AGNC currently yields $13.37. In the past year, AGNC’s dividend yield has been $13.37, but when looking at the stock over the past five years, its yield has been $11.40. Accordingly, AGNC has a current buyback yield of $0.76. This was $0.76 for the TTM.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded AGNC stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 16 while that of sell transactions has risen to 14 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 610,706 while 248,777 shares were sold.

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