A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: STORE Capital Corporation (STOR)

STORE Capital Corporation (NYSE: STOR) stock jumped 0.06% on Friday to $31.72 against a previous-day closing price of $31.70. With 8.82 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 3.74 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Diversified company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $31.85 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $31.70. The 52-week range on STOR shows that it touched its highest point at $36.13 and its lowest point at $24.48 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $30.82. With its current market cap of 9.03 billion, STOR has annualized dividend of $1.54 while the current yield stands at 4.85%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.14.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of STOR was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -1.25%, but this was up by 14.97% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 20.11% while six-month performance rose 9.12%. The stock lost -7.84% in the past year, while it has lost -7.79% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for STOR yields 1.19 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.16. For the next quarter, that number is 0.28. This implies an EPS growth rate of 18.20% for this year and -2.53% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 6.09% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 6.20%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 280.84 million STOR shares are outstanding with a float of 280.04 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 7.79 million, which was 2.78% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Ms. Mary B. Fedewa as the firm’s Co-Founder, Pres, CEO & Director, Ms. Sherry L. Rexroad CFA serves as its Exec. VP, CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Sec.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 84.76% of STOR’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 44.59% of STOR, in contrast to 43.76% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 13.00%. As the largest shareholder in STOR with 13.31% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 37,636,390 shares worth 37,636,390. A second-largest stockholder of STOR, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 23,050,385 shares, controlling over 8.15% of the firm’s shares. Principal Global Investors LLC is the third largest shareholder in STOR, holding 15,399,548 shares or 5.45% stake. With a 4.00% stake in STOR, the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 11,303,279 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.78% of STOR stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 7,843,646 shares valued at 211.62 million. iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF holds 2.62% of the stake in STOR, owning 7,410,106 shares worth 199.92 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for STOR since 13 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 0 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 2 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 10 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With STOR analysts setting a high price target of $33.00 and a low target of $25.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $30.83. Based on these targets, STOR could surge 4.04% to reach the target high and fall by -21.19% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a decline of -2.81% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. STOR will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $1.20 being high and $1.11 being low. For STOR, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $1.18. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. STORE Capital Corporation surprised analysts by $0.05 when it reported $0.32 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.27. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.06. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.28 and the low estimate is $0.27. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.28.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded STOR stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 21 while that of sell transactions has risen to 10 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 219,392 while 64,902 shares were sold.

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