Spirit Realty Capital Inc. (SRC) can make a big difference with a little luck

Spirit Realty Capital Inc. (NYSE: SRC) stock fell -3.01% on Friday to $40.86 against a previous-day closing price of $42.13. With 1.41 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.81 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Diversified company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $42.65 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $40.86. The 52-week range on SRC shows that it touched its highest point at $50.99 and its lowest point at $35.79 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $48.54. With its current market cap of 5.56 billion, SRC has annualized dividend of $2.65 while the current yield stands at 6.49%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.28.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of SRC was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -0.56%, but this was down by -3.43% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 8.38% while six-month performance fell -10.88%. The stock lost -17.05% in the past year, while it has lost -15.21% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for SRC yields 1.66 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.49. For the next quarter, that number is 0.37. This implies an EPS growth rate of 805.70% for this year and -14.25% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 37.47% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 35.30%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 136.34 million SRC shares are outstanding with a float of 135.53 million shares on hand for trading. On Aug 30, 2022, short shares totaled 2.84 million, which was 2.08% higher than short shares on Jul 28, 2022. In addition to Mr. Jackson Hsieh as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Michael C. Hughes serves as its Exec. VP & CFO.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 99.99% of SRC’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 59.35% of SRC, in contrast to 39.16% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.62%. As the largest shareholder in SRC with 14.12% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 19,255,075 shares worth 19,255,075. A second-largest stockholder of SRC, Cohen & Steers Capital Management, holds 14,280,461 shares, controlling over 10.47% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in SRC, holding 12,485,502 shares or 9.16% stake. With a 4.30% stake in SRC, the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 5,859,542 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.92% of SRC stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 3,979,312 shares valued at 162.55 million. iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF holds 2.90% of the stake in SRC, owning 3,949,967 shares worth 161.36 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for SRC since 18 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 8 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 8 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 2 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With SRC analysts setting a high price target of $58.00 and a low target of $40.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $48.54. Based on these targets, SRC could surge 41.95% to reach the target high and fall by -2.1% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 18.8% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. SRC will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/22/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $1.77 being high and $1.43 being low. For SRC, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $1.63. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Spirit Realty Capital Inc. surprised analysts by $0.23 when it reported $0.60 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.37. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.06. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.38 and the low estimate is $0.34. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.37.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded SRC stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 18 while that of sell transactions has risen to 12 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 281,160 while 143,543 shares were sold.

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