A look into MFA Financial Inc. (MFA)’s deeper side

MFA Financial Inc. (NYSE: MFA) stock fell -0.94% on Friday to $10.54 against a previous-day closing price of $10.64. With 1.29 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.36 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Mortgage company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $10.87 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $10.53. The 52-week range on MFA shows that it touched its highest point at $19.20 and its lowest point at $9.72 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $14.35. With its current market cap of 1.04 billion, MFA has annualized dividend of $1.76 while the current yield stands at 16.70%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.72.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of MFA was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -3.48%, but this was down by -7.30% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -2.41% while six-month performance fell -36.35%. The stock lost -43.33% in the past year, while it has lost -42.21% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for MFA yields -0.49 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.53. For the next quarter, that number is 0.31. This implies an EPS growth rate of 141.90% for this year and 222.40% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 102.52 million MFA shares are outstanding with a float of 101.17 million shares on hand for trading. On Aug 30, 2022, short shares totaled 3.27 million, which was 3.21% higher than short shares on Jul 28, 2022. In addition to Mr. Craig L. Knutson as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Stephen D. Yarad serves as its Chief Financial Officer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 65.00% of MFA’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 28.55% of MFA, in contrast to 24.51% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.49%. As the largest shareholder in MFA with 9.48% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 9,653,234 shares worth 9,653,234. A second-largest stockholder of MFA, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 7,819,323 shares, controlling over 7.68% of the firm’s shares. Fidelity Management & Research Co is the third largest shareholder in MFA, holding 3,428,379 shares or 3.37% stake. With a 3.48% stake in MFA, the Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 3,542,885 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, which owns about 2.99% of MFA stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 3,043,353 shares valued at 33.26 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund holds 2.54% of the stake in MFA, owning 2,585,740 shares worth 28.26 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. It generated -$100.37M net income for the quarter, which came to -$6.64M over the last twelve months.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for MFA since 4 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 0 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 3 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With MFA analysts setting a high price target of $15.50 and a low target of $13.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $14.19. Based on these targets, MFA could surge 47.06% to reach the target high and rise by 23.34% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 34.63% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. MFA will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $0.85 being high and -$1.37 being low. For MFA, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.72. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. MFA Financial Inc. surprised analysts by -$1.43 when it reported -$1.06 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.37. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$1.25. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.37 and the low estimate is $0.22. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.30.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded MFA stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 18 while that of sell transactions has risen to 12 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 324,669 while 174,100 shares were sold.

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