A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Tricida Inc. (TCDA)

Tricida Inc. (NASDAQ: TCDA) stock fell -5.19% on Friday to $9.49 against a previous-day closing price of $10.01. With 1.82 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.59 million shares. During the session, the Drug Manufacturers – Specialty & Generic company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $10.01 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $9.10. The 52-week range on TCDA shows that it touched its highest point at $13.85 and its lowest point at $4.10 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $19.33. Beta for the stock currently stands at 0.55.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of TCDA was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -10.64%, but this was down by -27.11% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -12.70% while six-month performance rose 13.25%. The stock gained 118.66% in the past year, while it has lost -0.73% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for TCDA yields -2.72 with Next year EPS estimates of -1.79. For the next quarter, that number is -0.61. This implies an EPS growth rate of 34.90% for this year and 22.30% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 57.83 million TCDA shares are outstanding with a float of 51.02 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 4.38 million, which was 7.90% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Dr. Gerrit Klaerner Ph.D. as the firm’s Founder, Pres, CEO & Exec. Director, Mr. Geoffrey M. Parker serves as its COO, CFO & Exec. VP.


Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 95.43% of TCDA’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 73.75% of TCDA, in contrast to 34.38% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 10.23%. As the largest shareholder in TCDA with 4.91% of the stake, Deep Track Capital LP holds 2,732,117 shares worth 2,732,117. A second-largest stockholder of TCDA, BlackRock Fund Advisors, holds 2,387,351 shares, controlling over 4.29% of the firm’s shares. Commodore Capital LP is the third largest shareholder in TCDA, holding 2,028,453 shares or 3.64% stake. With a 1.84% stake in TCDA, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 1,021,422 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which owns about 1.29% of TCDA stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 717,071 shares valued at 8.98 million. Vanguard Extended Market Index Fu holds 0.81% of the stake in TCDA, owning 448,629 shares worth 5.62 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for TCDA since 4 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 3 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 1 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With TCDA analysts setting a high price target of $20.00 and a low target of $8.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $16.50. Based on these targets, TCDA could surge 110.75% to reach the target high and fall by -15.7% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 73.87% from current levels.


EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. TCDA will report FY 2022 earnings on 03/29/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$1.93 being high and -$2.42 being low. For TCDA, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$2.21. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Tricida Inc. surprised analysts by $0.09 when it reported -$0.49 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.58. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.20. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.52 and the low estimate is -$0.76. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.60.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded TCDA stock several times over the past three months with 18 Buys and 9 Sells. In these transactions, 980,762 shares were bought while 284,939 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 32 while that of sell transactions has risen to 31 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 3,385,327 while 6,897,600 shares were sold.

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