There is no way Samsara Inc. (IOT) can keep these numbers up

Samsara Inc. (NYSE: IOT) stock jumped 2.70% on Friday to $16.00 against a previous-day closing price of $15.58. With 1.2 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.72 million shares. During the session, the Software – Infrastructure company that operates in wider Technology sector, reached to the highest price of $16.08 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $15.23. The 52-week range on IOT shows that it touched its highest point at $31.41 and its lowest point at $8.72 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $17.57.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of IOT was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 8.92%, but this was up by 21.86% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 24.32% while six-month performance fell -25.93%. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for IOT yields -0.75 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.19. For the next quarter, that number is -0.07. This implies an EPS growth rate of -67.20% for this year and 31.00% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 507.30 million IOT shares are outstanding with a float of 87.00 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 8.29 million, which was 1.63% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Sanjit Biswas as the firm’s Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman, Mr. John Bicket serves as its Co-Founder, Exec. VP, CTO & Director.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 69.58% of IOT’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 4.80% of IOT, in contrast to 24.73% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 16.87%. As the largest shareholder in IOT with 4.02% of the stake, PointState Capital LP holds 3,641,355 shares worth 3,641,355. A second-largest stockholder of IOT, AllianceBernstein LP, holds 3,140,261 shares, controlling over 3.47% of the firm’s shares. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in IOT, holding 3,017,790 shares or 3.33% stake. With a 2.12% stake in IOT, the AB Discovery Growth Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 1,918,013 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Robo Global Robotics & Automation, which owns about 1.50% of IOT stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 1,353,348 shares valued at 15.12 million. FTIF SICAV – Technology Fund holds 1.34% of the stake in IOT, owning 1,209,051 shares worth 13.51 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for IOT since 9 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 7 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 2 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With IOT analysts setting a high price target of $21.00 and a low target of $15.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $18.00. Based on these targets, IOT could surge 31.25% to reach the target high and fall by -6.25% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 12.5% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. IOT will report FY 2023 earnings on 03/02/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$0.23 being high and -$0.25 being low. For IOT, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.24. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Samsara Inc. surprised analysts by $0.02 when it reported -$0.05 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.07. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.02. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.06 and the low estimate is -$0.07. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.06.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded IOT stock several times over the past three months with 13 Buys and 6 Sells. In these transactions, 433,991 shares were bought while 315,431 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 33 while that of sell transactions has risen to 17 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 21,887,616 while 717,401 shares were sold.

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