Prepare Yourself for Liftoff: Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG)

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) stock fell -1.17% on Friday to $37.11 against a previous-day closing price of $37.55. With 1.11 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.68 million shares. During the session, the Recreational Vehicles company that operates in wider Consumer Cyclical sector, reached to the highest price of $37.95 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $37.01. The 52-week range on HOG shows that it touched its highest point at $44.46 and its lowest point at $29.80 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $46.78. With its current market cap of 4.96 billion, HOG has annualized dividend of $0.63 while the current yield stands at 1.70%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.36.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of HOG was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 0.41%, but this was up by 15.64% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -9.62% while six-month performance rose 2.03%. The stock lost -4.85% in the past year, while it has lost -1.54% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for HOG yields 4.09 with Next year EPS estimates of 4.70. For the next quarter, that number is 1.39. This implies an EPS growth rate of 3.30% for this year and 8.04% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 43.10% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 1.80%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 152.82 million HOG shares are outstanding with a float of 146.46 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 6.62 million, which was 4.49% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Jochen Zeitz as the firm’s Chairman, Pres & CEO, Ms. Gina Goetter serves as its Chief Financial Officer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 93.50% of HOG’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 46.91% of HOG, in contrast to 45.68% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 2.67%. As the largest shareholder in HOG with 8.89% of the stake, The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds 13,105,378 shares worth 13,105,378. A second-largest stockholder of HOG, H Partners Management LLC, holds 12,600,000 shares, controlling over 8.55% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in HOG, holding 11,545,955 shares or 7.83% stake. With a 3.19% stake in HOG, the John Hancock III – Disciplined Va is the largest stakeholder. A total of 4,702,069 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF, which owns about 2.89% of HOG stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 4,260,037 shares valued at 134.87 million. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index holds 2.65% of the stake in HOG, owning 3,904,161 shares worth 123.61 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for HOG since 17 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 4 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 11 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 1 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With HOG analysts setting a high price target of $60.00 and a low target of $36.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $45.88. Based on these targets, HOG could surge 61.68% to reach the target high and fall by -2.99% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 23.63% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. HOG will report FY 2022 earnings on 01/31/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $4.95 being high and $3.85 being low. For HOG, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $4.46. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Harley-Davidson Inc. surprised analysts by $0.39 when it reported $1.46 EPS against a consensus estimate of $1.07. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.00. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $1.54 and the low estimate is $1.20. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $1.41.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded HOG stock several times over the past three months with 5 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 12,191 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 32 while that of sell transactions has risen to 30 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 228,926 while 99,291 shares were sold.

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