Perhaps timely catching Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR) would be a good idea

Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: ABR) stock jumped 1.10% on Friday to $15.62 against a previous-day closing price of $15.45. With 2.19 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 2.84 million shares. During the session, the REIT – Mortgage company that operates in wider Real Estate sector, reached to the highest price of $15.65 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $15.25. The 52-week range on ABR shows that it touched its highest point at $20.74 and its lowest point at $12.18 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $19.38. With its current market cap of 2.39 billion, ABR has annualized dividend of $1.52 while the current yield stands at 9.73%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.79.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of ABR was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -4.87%, but this was up by 16.39% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -11.25% while six-month performance fell -9.92%. The stock lost -13.41% in the past year, while it has lost -14.74% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for ABR yields 1.95 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.68. For the next quarter, that number is 0.41. This implies an EPS growth rate of 66.70% for this year and 4.36% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 8.00% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 20.00%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 160.20 million ABR shares are outstanding with a float of 153.93 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 6.06 million, which was 3.78% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Ivan Paul Kaufman as the firm’s Chairman, Pres & CEO, Mr. Paul Anthony Elenio serves as its Exec. VP & CFO.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 43.27% of ABR’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 5.23% of ABR, in contrast to 22.34% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 18.97%. As the largest shareholder in ABR with 7.68% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 12,308,757 shares worth 12,308,757. A second-largest stockholder of ABR, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 9,203,617 shares, controlling over 5.75% of the firm’s shares. SSgA Funds Management, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in ABR, holding 2,889,148 shares or 1.80% stake. With a 2.78% stake in ABR, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 4,448,727 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund, which owns about 2.40% of ABR stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 3,846,847 shares valued at 50.43 million. iShares Russell 2000 ETF holds 2.15% of the stake in ABR, owning 3,451,412 shares worth 45.25 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for ABR since 5 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 3 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 1 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With ABR analysts setting a high price target of $21.00 and a low target of $17.50, the average target price over the next 12 months is $19.00. Based on these targets, ABR could surge 34.44% to reach the target high and rise by 12.04% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 21.64% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. ABR will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/17/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $2.05 being high and $1.64 being low. For ABR, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $1.91. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Arbor Realty Trust Inc. surprised analysts by $0.09 when it reported $0.52 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.43. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.10. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.51 and the low estimate is $0.38. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.45.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded ABR stock several times over the past three months with 1 Buys and 1 Sells. In these transactions, 2,500 shares were bought while 31,506 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 19 while that of sell transactions has risen to 32 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 187,808 while 1,165,224 shares were sold.

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