Adversity is less terrifying than hope: Cedar Fair L.P. (FUN)

Cedar Fair L.P. (NYSE: FUN) stock jumped 2.04% on Friday to $41.00 against a previous-day closing price of $40.18. With 0.69 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.41 million shares. During the session, the Leisure company that operates in wider Consumer Cyclical sector, reached to the highest price of $41.30 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $40.14. The 52-week range on FUN shows that it touched its highest point at $62.56 and its lowest point at $37.78 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $65.33. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.75.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of FUN was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -3.28%, but this was down by -12.13% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -23.32% while six-month performance fell -29.97%. The stock lost -0.99% in the past year, while it has lost -18.10% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for FUN yields -0.49 with Next year EPS estimates of 4.18. For the next quarter, that number is 1.41. This implies an EPS growth rate of 91.80% for this year and 1.36% for next year. EPS is expected to decline by -2.12% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of -17.80%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 56.68 million FUN shares are outstanding with a float of 56.18 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 5.44 million, which was 9.54% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Richard A. Zimmerman as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director of Cedar Fair Management Inc., Mr. Brian C. Witherow serves as its Exec. VP & CFO of Cedar Fair Management Inc.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 67.41% of FUN’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 7.96% of FUN, in contrast to 53.59% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 33.01%. As the largest shareholder in FUN with 8.75% of the stake, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC holds 4,989,597 shares worth 4,989,597. A second-largest stockholder of FUN, Centerbridge Partners LP, holds 2,965,496 shares, controlling over 5.20% of the firm’s shares. ING Bank NV is the third largest shareholder in FUN, holding 2,384,000 shares or 4.18% stake. With a 1.21% stake in FUN, the Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Enterta is the largest stakeholder. A total of 687,810 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The T. Rowe Price All-Cap Opportuniti, which owns about 1.05% of FUN stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 597,902 shares valued at 26.25 million. Thrivent Small Cap Stock Fund holds 0.68% of the stake in FUN, owning 387,076 shares worth 17.0 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Jun 25, 2022, FUN reported revenue of $98.83M and operating income of -$82.22M. Over the past year, revenue came in at $1.43B while operating income stood at $156.62M. It generated -$88.51M net income for the quarter, which came to -$26.61M over the last twelve months. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was -$72.58M and diluted EPS was -$1.56. EBITDA for the full year was $324.47M.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for FUN since 9 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 8 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 1 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With FUN analysts setting a high price target of $89.00 and a low target of $51.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $62.78. Based on these targets, FUN could surge 117.07% to reach the target high and rise by 24.39% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 53.12% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. FUN will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/15/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $4.35 being high and $3.50 being low. For FUN, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $3.82. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Cedar Fair L.P. surprised analysts by -$0.60 when it reported $0.89 EPS against a consensus estimate of $1.49. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.43. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $4.27 and the low estimate is $3.94. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $4.11.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded FUN stock several times over the past three months with 0 Buys and 0 Sells. In these transactions, 0 shares were bought while 0 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 15 while that of sell transactions has risen to 15 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 95,086 while 69,609 shares were sold.

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