Adversity is less terrifying than hope: Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX)

Ardelyx Inc. (NASDAQ: ARDX) stock jumped 7.22% on Friday to $0.82 against a previous-day closing price of $0.76. With 2.27 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 2.41 million shares. During the session, the Biotechnology company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $0.8583 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $0.7648. The 52-week range on ARDX shows that it touched its highest point at $1.92 and its lowest point at $0.49 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $4.67. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.83.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of ARDX was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 18.82%, but this was up by 31.54% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -9.62% while six-month performance rose 1.72%. The stock lost -48.75% in the past year, while it has lost -25.45% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for ARDX yields -1.40 with Next year EPS estimates of -0.34. For the next quarter, that number is -0.19. This implies an EPS growth rate of -44.20% for this year and 47.90% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 30.00% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 11.50%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 130.94 million ARDX shares are outstanding with a float of 128.34 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 10.84 million, which was 7.49% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Michael G. Raab as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Justin A. Renz CPA, M.S.T., MBA, MST serves as its CFO & Treasurer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 28.78% of ARDX’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have minority control over the company. Other institutions hold 9.05% of ARDX, in contrast to 18.68% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 17.92%. As the largest shareholder in ARDX with 3.60% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 5,206,142 shares worth 5,206,142. A second-largest stockholder of ARDX, Great Point Partners LLC, holds 4,761,905 shares, controlling over 3.29% of the firm’s shares. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in ARDX, holding 3,777,081 shares or 2.61% stake. With a 2.69% stake in ARDX, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 3,888,128 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Candoris ICAV – Orchard US Small, which owns about 0.84% of ARDX stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 1,220,809 shares valued at 0.72 million. Vanguard Extended Market Index Fu holds 0.75% of the stake in ARDX, owning 1,083,721 shares worth 0.64 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for ARDX since 7 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 4 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 3 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 0 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With ARDX analysts setting a high price target of $12.00 and a low target of $1.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $4.67. Based on these targets, ARDX could surge 1363.41% to reach the target high and rise by 21.95% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 469.51% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. ARDX will report FY 2022 earnings on 03/08/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$0.65 being high and -$0.82 being low. For ARDX, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$0.72. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Ardelyx Inc. surprised analysts by $0.01 when it reported -$0.21 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.22. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.01. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.17 and the low estimate is -$0.21. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.19.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded ARDX stock several times over the past three months with 6 Buys and 21 Sells. In these transactions, 711,675 shares were bought while 432,471 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 19 while that of sell transactions has risen to 65 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 2,341,675 while 6,565,464 shares were sold.

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