A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (NYSE: GOOS) stock jumped 0.15% on Friday to $20.11 against a previous-day closing price of $20.08. With 1.05 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.09 million shares. During the session, the Apparel Manufacturing company that operates in wider Consumer Cyclical sector, reached to the highest price of $20.53 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $20.01. The 52-week range on GOOS shows that it touched its highest point at $53.64 and its lowest point at $16.65 during that stretch. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.42.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of GOOS was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 6.63%, but this was up by 15.05% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -12.79% while six-month performance fell -36.22%. The stock lost -52.63% in the past year, while it has lost -45.74% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for GOOS yields 0.89 with Next year EPS estimates of 2.01. For the next quarter, that number is -0.61. This implies an EPS growth rate of 37.20% for this year and 20.25% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 32.80% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 32.10%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 106.19 million GOOS shares are outstanding with a float of 54.17 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 8.71 million, which was 8.27% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Dani Reiss C.M. as the firm’s Chairman & CEO, Mr. Jonathan Stuart Sinclair serves as its CFO & Exec. VP.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 91.50% of GOOS’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 54.88% of GOOS, in contrast to 33.48% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for –. As the largest shareholder in GOOS with 17.47% of the stake, Morgan Stanley Investment Managem holds 9,466,360 shares worth 9,466,360. A second-largest stockholder of GOOS, Fidelity Management & Research Co, holds 4,162,417 shares, controlling over 7.68% of the firm’s shares. Manulife Investment Management is the third largest shareholder in GOOS, holding 3,179,953 shares or 5.87% stake. With a 10.56% stake in GOOS, the Morgan Stanley Instl. Fund-Intern is the largest stakeholder. A total of 5,721,865 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Morgan Stanley Instl. Fund-Intern, which owns about 4.38% of GOOS stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 2,372,675 shares valued at 42.73 million. Ivy Mid Cap Growth Fund holds 3.95% of the stake in GOOS, owning 2,140,849 shares worth 38.56 million.

An Overview of Recent Financials:

Understanding a company as a customer does not mean you will understand it as an investor. The wise investor uses quantitative research to analyze metrics such as revenue, net income, and earnings. In its fiscal quarter reported on Apr 02, 2022, GOOS reported revenue of $223.10M and operating income of $200.00k. Over the past year, revenue came in at $1.10B while operating income stood at $156.70M. It generated -$9.60M net income for the quarter, which came to $94.60M over the last twelve months. The EBITDA in the recently reported quarter was $19.90M and diluted EPS was -$0.09. EBITDA for the full year was $251.70M.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for GOOS since 16 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 6 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 2 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 4 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 3 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 1 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With GOOS analysts setting a high price target of $42.70 and a low target of $14.80, the average target price over the next 12 months is $25.03. Based on these targets, GOOS could surge 112.33% to reach the target high and fall by -26.4% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 24.47% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. GOOS will report FY 2023 earnings on 05/18/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $1.48 being high and $0.82 being low. For GOOS, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $1.25. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Canada Goose Holdings Inc. surprised analysts by $0.04 when it reported $0.03 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.01. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.02. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.45 and the low estimate is -$0.53. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.48.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded GOOS stock several times over the past three months with 37 Buys and 15 Sells. In these transactions, 111,166 shares were bought while 34,673 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 83 while that of sell transactions has risen to 59 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 4,137,104 while 4,056,529 shares were sold.

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