Triumph Group Inc. (TGI) can make a big difference with a little luck

Triumph Group Inc. (NYSE: TGI) stock fell -12.78% on Friday to $14.47 against a previous-day closing price of $16.59. With 1.35 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 0.88 million shares. During the session, the Aerospace & Defense company that operates in wider Industrials sector, reached to the highest price of $16.87 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $14.03. The 52-week range on TGI shows that it touched its highest point at $27.85 and its lowest point at $11.47 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $20.43. Beta for the stock currently stands at 2.68.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of TGI was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -4.74%, but this was up by 9.95% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -35.92% while six-month performance fell -22.16%. The stock lost -26.55% in the past year, while it has lost -21.91% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for TGI yields -0.67 with Next year EPS estimates of 1.02. For the next quarter, that number is 0.10. This implies an EPS growth rate of 92.30% for this year and 80.04% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 20.40% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 5.30%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 64.69 million TGI shares are outstanding with a float of 63.57 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 3.53 million, which was 5.46% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Daniel J. Crowley as the firm’s Chairman, Pres & CEO, Mr. James F. McCabe Jr. serves as its Sr. VP & CFO.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 107.36% of TGI’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 53.01% of TGI, in contrast to 44.32% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 4.35%. As the largest shareholder in TGI with 14.17% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 9,162,613 shares worth 9,162,613. A second-largest stockholder of TGI, T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., holds 8,710,971 shares, controlling over 13.47% of the firm’s shares. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is the third largest shareholder in TGI, holding 5,255,211 shares or 8.13% stake. With a 8.39% stake in TGI, the T Rowe Price Small Cap Value Fund is the largest stakeholder. A total of 5,423,850 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF, which owns about 5.62% of TGI stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 3,635,768 shares valued at 48.32 million. SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF holds 3.26% of the stake in TGI, owning 2,108,430 shares worth 28.02 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for TGI since 7 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 2 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 2 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 2 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With TGI analysts setting a high price target of $26.00 and a low target of $13.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $18.14. Based on these targets, TGI could surge 79.68% to reach the target high and fall by -10.16% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 25.36% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. TGI will report FY 2023 earnings on 05/11/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $0.55 being high and $0.40 being low. For TGI, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $0.47. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Triumph Group Inc. surprised analysts by $0.02 when it reported $0.12 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.10. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.03. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $0.18 and the low estimate is $0.03. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $0.10.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded TGI stock several times over the past three months with 19 Buys and 11 Sells. In these transactions, 247,796 shares were bought while 65,468 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 32 while that of sell transactions has risen to 25 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 444,168 while 168,375 shares were sold.

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