Moderna Inc. (MRNA) can make a big difference with a little luck

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) stock jumped 15.97% on Friday to $186.49 against a previous-day closing price of $160.81. With 13.74 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained heavier than its average volume of 5.53 million shares. During the session, the Biotechnology company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $189.30 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $167.74. The 52-week range on MRNA shows that it touched its highest point at $497.49 and its lowest point at $115.61 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $221.13. Beta for the stock currently stands at 1.60.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of MRNA was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 18.02%, but this was up by 19.90% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 27.26% while six-month performance rose 7.96%. The stock lost -51.75% in the past year, while it has lost -26.57% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for MRNA yields 34.01 with Next year EPS estimates of 8.85. For the next quarter, that number is 4.55. This implies an EPS growth rate of -1.90% for this year and -68.20% for next year.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 402.00 million MRNA shares are outstanding with a float of 360.34 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 16.29 million, which was 4.09% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Dr. Noubar B. Afeyan Ph.D. as the firm’s Co-Founder, Independent Non Exec. Chairman & Member of Technology Advisory Board, Mr. Stephane Bancel serves as its CEO & Director.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 64.21% of MRNA’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 34.28% of MRNA, in contrast to 25.06% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 14.33%. As the largest shareholder in MRNA with 11.47% of the stake, Baillie Gifford & Co. holds 45,629,226 shares worth 45,629,226. A second-largest stockholder of MRNA, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 25,612,184 shares, controlling over 6.44% of the firm’s shares. BlackRock Fund Advisors is the third largest shareholder in MRNA, holding 19,891,757 shares or 5.00% stake. With a 2.51% stake in MRNA, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 9,969,380 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Vanguard International Growth Fun, which owns about 2.49% of MRNA stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 9,903,909 shares valued at 1.41 billion. Scottish Mortgage Investment Trus holds 2.31% of the stake in MRNA, owning 9,203,093 shares worth 1.31 billion.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for MRNA since 19 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 5 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 1 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 10 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 3 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With MRNA analysts setting a high price target of $506.00 and a low target of $77.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $219.69. Based on these targets, MRNA could surge 171.33% to reach the target high and fall by -58.71% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 17.8% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. MRNA will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/23/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $31.59 being high and $22.95 being low. For MRNA, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $27.85. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Moderna Inc. surprised analysts by $0.66 when it reported $5.24 EPS against a consensus estimate of $4.58. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $3.21. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $5.34 and the low estimate is $2.02. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $4.58.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded MRNA stock several times over the past three months with 48 Buys and 172 Sells. In these transactions, 787,018 shares were bought while 1,196,225 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 221 while that of sell transactions has risen to 570 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 1,833,570 while 3,407,362 shares were sold.

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