Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Clearly Signals Buy-Into the Stock: Don’t ignore the signals

Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR) stock fell -3.41% on Friday to $55.18 against a previous-day closing price of $57.13. With 1.06 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 1.59 million shares. During the session, the Oil & Gas E&P company that operates in wider Energy sector, reached to the highest price of $57.90 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $54.15. The 52-week range on MTDR shows that it touched its highest point at $67.78 and its lowest point at $24.76 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $75.45. With its current market cap of 6.29 billion, MTDR has annualized dividend of $0.40 while the current yield stands at 0.72%. Beta for the stock currently stands at 3.73.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of MTDR was down-trending over the past week, with a drop of -0.95%, but this was up by 25.95% over a month. Three-month performance surged to 5.67% while six-month performance rose 20.43%. The stock gained 86.10% in the past year, while it has gained 49.46% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for MTDR yields 8.69 with Next year EPS estimates of 10.36. For the next quarter, that number is 2.85. This implies an EPS growth rate of 196.10% for this year and -8.12% for next year. EPS is expected to grow by 10.40% annually over the next five years; however, over the past five years, the company experienced an annual growth rate of 45.80%.

Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 117.95 million MTDR shares are outstanding with a float of 111.20 million shares on hand for trading. On Jul 14, 2022, short shares totaled 9.03 million, which was 7.64% higher than short shares on Jun 14, 2022. In addition to Mr. Joseph Wm. Foran as the firm’s Founder, Chairman & CEO, Mr. Craig N. Adams J.D. serves as its Exec. VP, Co-COO, Chief of Staff & Corp. Sec.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 93.97% of MTDR’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 52.56% of MTDR, in contrast to 36.59% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 17.43%. As the largest shareholder in MTDR with 13.63% of the stake, BlackRock Fund Advisors holds 16,097,565 shares worth 16,097,565. A second-largest stockholder of MTDR, The Vanguard Group, Inc., holds 12,123,508 shares, controlling over 10.26% of the firm’s shares. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is the third largest shareholder in MTDR, holding 6,025,577 shares or 5.10% stake. With a 2.80% stake in MTDR, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is the largest stakeholder. A total of 3,301,499 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The iShares Core S&P Mid Cap ETF, which owns about 2.71% of MTDR stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 3,198,147 shares valued at 149.0 million. Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund holds 2.40% of the stake in MTDR, owning 2,836,279 shares worth 132.14 million.

Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for MTDR since 12 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 8 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 2 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 2 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With MTDR analysts setting a high price target of $96.00 and a low target of $63.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $75.45. Based on these targets, MTDR could surge 73.98% to reach the target high and rise by 14.17% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 36.73% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. MTDR will report FY 2022 earnings on 02/21/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of $12.08 being high and $10.60 being low. For MTDR, this leads to a yearly average estimate of $11.14. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Matador Resources Company surprised analysts by $0.33 when it reported $3.47 EPS against a consensus estimate of $3.14. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was $0.25. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is $3.32 and the low estimate is $2.37. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus $2.76.

Summary of Insider Activity:

Insiders traded MTDR stock several times over the past three months with 9 Buys and 3 Sells. In these transactions, 16,520 shares were bought while 3,297 shares were sold. The number of buy transactions has increased to 50 while that of sell transactions has risen to 40 over the past year. The total number of shares bought during that period was 1,997,766 while 1,328,455 shares were sold.

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