A History of Outperforming Analyst Forecasts and Beating the Odds: Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AYLA)

Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AYLA) stock jumped 11.11% on Friday to $1.90 against a previous-day closing price of $1.71. With 2.25 million shares changed hands, the volume of the stock remained lighter than its average volume of 2.25 million shares. During the session, the Biotechnology company that operates in wider Healthcare sector, reached to the highest price of $1.9800 whereas the lowest price it dropped to was $1.5600. The 52-week range on AYLA shows that it touched its highest point at $14.95 and its lowest point at $0.70 during that stretch. It currently has a 1-year price target of $13.38.

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Price Performance and Earnings:

Stock performance is one of the indicators that investors use to determine whether they will profit from a stock. The price performance of AYLA was up-trending over the past week, with a rise of 118.39%, but this was up by 74.31% over a month. Three-month performance dropped to -24.60% while six-month performance fell -64.75%. The stock lost -84.80% in the past year, while it has lost -77.67% so far this year. A look at the trailing 12-month EPS for AYLA yields -2.75 with Next year EPS estimates of -2.19. For the next quarter, that number is -0.65. This implies an EPS growth rate of 8.60% for this year and 12.20% for next year.


Float and Shares Shorts:

At present, 15.30 million AYLA shares are outstanding with a float of 9.68 million shares on hand for trading. On Apr 28, 2022, short shares totaled 6380.0, which was 0.05% higher than short shares on Mar 30, 2022. In addition to Dr. Roni Mamluk M.D., Ph.D. as the firm’s Pres, CEO & Director, Mr. Yossi Maimon CPA, M.B.A., CPA, MBA serves as its CFO, Sec. & Treasurer.

Institutional Ownership:

Through their ownership of 56.51% of AYLA’s outstanding shares, institutional investors have majority control over the company. Other institutions hold 32.97% of AYLA, in contrast to 2.80% held by mutual funds. Shares owned by individuals account for 0.80%. As the largest shareholder in AYLA with 15.29% of the stake, Harel Mutual Funds Ltd. holds 2,153,273 shares worth 2,153,273. A second-largest stockholder of AYLA, Ikarian Capital LLC, holds 708,383 shares, controlling over 5.03% of the firm’s shares. Wellington Management Co. LLP is the third largest shareholder in AYLA, holding 648,653 shares or 4.61% stake. With a 0.55% stake in AYLA, the Bridgeway Ultra Small Company Mar is the largest stakeholder. A total of 78,000 shares are owned by the mutual fund manager. The Arctic Funds Plc – Aurora Biotech, which owns about 0.14% of AYLA stock, is the second-largest Mutual Fund holder. It holds 20,000 shares valued at 21800.0. Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index F holds 0.08% of the stake in AYLA, owning 10,596 shares worth 11550.0.


Analysts Ratings:

Reading analyst opinions is an effective way to decide where to invest, and there are several opinions available for AYLA since 6 analysts follow the stock currently. There are 5 analysts who recommend BUY ratings, while 0 suggest SELL ratings. Of the remaining analysts, 0 believe that the stock is worth HOLDING, 1 give it an OVERWEIGHT rating, and 0 thinks that it’s UNDERWEIGHT. In the same way, a target price assigned to a stock can also reveal much about its potential. With AYLA analysts setting a high price target of $18.00 and a low target of $6.00, the average target price over the next 12 months is $13.00. Based on these targets, AYLA could surge 847.37% to reach the target high and rise by 215.79% to reach the target low. Reaching the average price target will result in a growth of 584.21% from current levels.

EPS: Estimates vs Actual

It is also common to use earnings estimates to evaluate a firm’s growth potential and to determine trading strategy. AYLA will report FY 2022 earnings on 03/28/2023. Analysts have provided yearly estimates in a range of -$2.11 being high and -$2.87 being low. For AYLA, this leads to a yearly average estimate of -$2.48. The earnings surprise of a firm occurs when the actual results change from the consensus earnings estimate. Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc. surprised analysts by $0.02 when it reported -$0.66 EPS against a consensus estimate of -$0.68. The surprise factor in the prior quarter was -$0.07. Based on analyst estimates, the high estimate for the next quarter is -$0.46 and the low estimate is -$0.74. The average estimate for the next quarter is thus -$0.65.

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